End 2008 hardware shipments: Things of Note
01/31/09
DS passed GBA last quarter. Its shoot up continues. It's certainly passed Game Boy and Game Boy Color individually, but as Nintendo prefers to report them as a whole, that's still the one barrier DS has to becoming Nintendo's most-sold system ever.
Here's
the console equivalent. Don't take the early NES/SNES line segments
seriously; since our first solid shipment data for them comes from the
late 90s when they were almost finished, those looooong straight line
segments representing 1983-1996 are simply the best we have. Wii has
already passed GameCube and N64. SNES will probably be passed with
another quarter. NES will take a little longer, but short a disaster
Wii will be the most successful Nintendo home console ever by the end
of 2009.
The
line comparison is nice, but I also really like how this bar version
looks, comparing Wii's growth with previous consoles' totals.
Europe continues to pull away as DS's biggest market, while Japan has had a slow year relative to DS's previous boom.
North
America remains the stronghold for Wii, though. Japan is far in third
here, accounting for less than half as many systems as second-place
Europe.
It
was already true that Wii was the most successful Nintendo console ever
in Europe, but the amount by which that is true continues to grow. It's
now nearly sold twice as much as second-place NES. I continue
to think it's only a matter of time until it has outsold all previous
four consoles combined, which would take about 28.7 million units.
For PS3 and X360 only worldwide numbers are available, so I can't go into as much detail.
In
worldwide shipments at this age, PS3 is between where PS1 and PS2 were
at this time. Keep in mind that both of those systems had a much more
protracted worldwide launch, and that PS1 didn't have the advantage of
coming in as the successor to the previous generation's champion. A
sudden upturn to 100 million for PS3 still remains quite unlikely.
X360 beat the last-generation Xbox in the previous quarter; the rest of the growth here is gravy.
So
how do they compare to the secondary and tertiary consoles of the last
few generations? Pretty decently, really. Both are keeping their heads
above the N64 mark, which was the previous best-selling secondary
console at ~33 million. It's feasible that both X360 and PS3 will pass
that by the end of 2009, though it's less of a certainty for PS3.
Though
Wii has long since passed up X360 and PS3 individually, it's still a
hard slog against the combined userbase of the HD consoles. At the end
of 2007 the gap was about 8 million. By the end of September 2008 the
PS360's lead had shrunk to 5.2 million. As of the end of 2008... it's
5.2 million. The holidays exacerbate Wii shortages, and it doesn't get
quite the percentage boost of the others. It did better this holiday
than last, however; in the final quarter of 2007, PS360 increased its
lead over Wii by more than 2 million.
Thanks
to Sony's change of shipment reporting methods a couple years ago and
lack of giving decent LTD numbers since, I don't have anything fancy to
show for PS2 or PSP.
To cap things off, the one phrase I may have used the most in discussions such as these:
There are more Wiis available than any near-launch home console ever.
At the same age, Wii shipments are about 50% ahead of #2 PS2, and more than double #3 PS3.
